📖Carl Icahn
Learn from Past Sells
Post-mortem every sell decision to improve.
After every sell, review the outcome. Did you sell too early, too late, or at the right time? Post-mortems on sell decisions improve future judgment.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Carl Icahn sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Reviewing sell decisions sharpens future timing.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
Yahoo vs. Microsoft Deal Push (2008)
Icahn bought Yahoo shares after it rejected Microsoft’s takeover bid, arguing the board had destroyed value by refusing the offer.
✨ Outcome：He waged a proxy fight, secured board seats, and eventually exited with mixed results as no full Microsoft deal materialized, but governance pressure increased.
2
Apple Shareholder Engagement (2013)
Icahn disclosed a large Apple stake and publicly pressured management and the board to increase accountability around cash usage and capital allocation, specifically advocating for a larger share repurchase program.
✨ Outcome：Apple expanded its buyback program, returning more cash to shareholders and demonstrating responsiveness to activist oversight.
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