📖Carl Icahn
Price vs Value Disconnect
Prices diverge from value short-term but converge long-term.
In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it's a weighing machine. Prices can diverge wildly from value, but eventually converge.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Price vs Value Disconnect, Carl Icahn focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：The voting-to-weighing machine transition is inevitable.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
eBay–PayPal Spin-Off Campaign (2014)
Icahn took a stake in eBay and urged the company to separate PayPal and improve capital allocation, including more efficient returns of cash to shareholders.
✨ Outcome：eBay agreed to spin off PayPal, unlocking value; combined with buybacks, this enhanced shareholder returns over time.
2
Apple Inc. Board Influence Campaign (2013)
Icahn accumulated a large Apple stake and publicly pushed for increased share repurchases and stronger capital allocation, seeking greater influence and quasi‑board representation through direct engagement and media pressure.
✨ Outcome：Apple expanded its buyback program significantly, boosting shareholder returns; Icahn exited with substantial profits.
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