📖Carl Icahn
Probabilistic Thinking
Think in probabilities, not certainties.
Think in probabilities, not certainties. Every investment has a range of possible outcomes. Weight your decisions by the expected value of each scenario.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Probabilistic Thinking, Carl Icahn focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：Expected value calculations guide rational decisions.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
Apple Shareholder Activism (2013)
Icahn disclosed a large Apple stake and pushed for a significantly larger share repurchase program to deploy excess cash and boost shareholder value.
✨ Outcome：Apple expanded its buyback authorization, increasing capital returned to shareholders and supporting a substantial rise in market capitalization.
2
eBay–PayPal Spin-Off Campaign (2014)
Icahn took a stake in eBay and urged the company to separate PayPal and improve capital allocation, including more efficient returns of cash to shareholders.
✨ Outcome：eBay agreed to spin off PayPal, unlocking value; combined with buybacks, this enhanced shareholder returns over time.
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