📖Ray Dalio
Buy Diversified Streams
Build portfolios of uncorrelated bets rather than picking winners.
Rather than trying to pick the best investments, focus on building a portfolio of uncorrelated bets. Each bet should be sized appropriately to risk.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Ray Dalio treats survival as the first objective. Limiting permanent capital loss, controlling leverage, and avoiding single-point failure are prerequisites for long-term compounding.
💎 Key Insight：Portfolio construction matters more than individual stock selection.
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❓ Why It Matters
A single large drawdown can erase years of progress. Risk control is not timidity; it is the operating system that keeps compounding alive.
🎯 How to Practice
Define downside scenarios before entry, cap position size, avoid fragile leverage, and maintain liquidity so mistakes remain survivable.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Equating volatility with all forms of risk
Oversized positions without an exit plan
Using leverage to compensate for uncertainty
📚 Case Studies
1
Mexico Debt Crisis Bonds (1982)
Bridgewater recommended selling Mexican bonds short before the 1982 default, convinced a major downturn was certain.
✨ Outcome：The bearish call was overstated, clients left, and the firm nearly failed. Dalio adopted radical open-mindedness and probabilistic thinking for future macro calls.
2
Long-Term Capital Management Turmoil (1998)
Bridgewater misjudged how central banks would react to LTCM’s collapse and related market stress.
✨ Outcome：Positions suffered from unexpected policy responses. Dalio refined stress-testing, scenario analysis, and diversification to account for extreme but plausible central bank interventions.
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