📖Ray Dalio
Know What You Don't Know
Intellectual humility about unknowns is essential.
The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist. Being open-minded about what you don't know is the key.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Ray Dalio advocates a repeatable process: define criteria, execute consistently, and review decisions against evidence. Process quality drives outcome consistency.
💎 Key Insight：Knowing the limits of your knowledge prevents costly errors.
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❓ Why It Matters
Without process, there is no reliable feedback loop. Structured execution and review improve decision quality over time.
🎯 How to Practice
Run a decision loop of research, thesis, execution, and post-mortem; document assumptions and update playbooks with evidence, not hindsight bias.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Having opinions without execution criteria
Reviewing outcomes but not decisions
Abandoning rules during volatility spikes
📚 Case Studies
1
Global Financial Crisis (2008)
All-Weather, with balanced risk across asset classes, declined far less than equity-heavy portfolios and avoided forced selling during the crash.
✨ Outcome：Preserved capital relative to stocks and participated in the subsequent recovery, illustrating crisis resilience.
2
COVID-19 Market Shock (2020)
During the rapid pandemic selloff, diversified risk exposures helped cushion losses versus concentrated equity portfolios, while bonds and some commodities offset part of the drawdown.
✨ Outcome：Smaller drawdown and quicker recovery reinforced the strategy’s goal of stability across economic environments.
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