📖Ray Dalio
Principles-Based Investing
Build your investment approach on explicit principles.
Think for yourself to decide what you want, what is true, and what to do about it. Principles are fundamental truths that serve as the foundations for behavior.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Ray Dalio advocates a repeatable process: define criteria, execute consistently, and review decisions against evidence. Process quality drives outcome consistency.
💎 Key Insight：Written principles create consistency and enable improvement.
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❓ Why It Matters
Without process, there is no reliable feedback loop. Structured execution and review improve decision quality over time.
🎯 How to Practice
Run a decision loop of research, thesis, execution, and post-mortem; document assumptions and update playbooks with evidence, not hindsight bias.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Having opinions without execution criteria
Reviewing outcomes but not decisions
Abandoning rules during volatility spikes
📚 Case Studies
1
Bet on Falling Interest Rates (1982)
Dalio predicted recession and falling inflation, buying long-term US Treasuries when yields were historically high.
✨ Outcome：Bonds rallied sharply as rates fell; Bridgewater’s returns surged, reinforcing his principles-based macro approach.
2
British Pound ERM Crisis (1992)
Bridgewater analyzed UK’s unsustainable ERM peg and accumulating pressures on the pound.
✨ Outcome：Positioned for devaluation; profited when the UK exited the ERM on Black Wednesday, validating systematic study of cause-effect linkages.
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