📖David Swensen
Inversion Thinking
Invert problems to find insights forward thinking misses.
Instead of asking how to succeed, ask how to avoid failure. Inverting problems often reveals insights that forward thinking misses.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
David Swensen advocates a repeatable process: define criteria, execute consistently, and review decisions against evidence. Process quality drives outcome consistency.
💎 Key Insight：Avoiding failure is often more productive than pursuing success.
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❓ Why It Matters
Without process, there is no reliable feedback loop. Structured execution and review improve decision quality over time.
🎯 How to Practice
Run a decision loop of research, thesis, execution, and post-mortem; document assumptions and update playbooks with evidence, not hindsight bias.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Having opinions without execution criteria
Reviewing outcomes but not decisions
Abandoning rules during volatility spikes
📚 Case Studies
1
Global Financial Crisis (2008)
As equities and illiquid assets plunged, Swensen’s disciplined rebalancing shifted funds from Treasuries and bonds back into depressed equities and alternative assets despite market panic.
✨ Outcome：Positioned the endowment for strong post-2009 recovery, outperforming many peers that de-risked near the bottom.
2
Tech Bubble Resistance (2000)
Amid the dot-com boom, Swensen refused to chase soaring tech stocks, keeping Yale’s portfolio diversified and underweight in high-flying internet names.
✨ Outcome：Avoided the worst of the 2000–2002 crash, preserving capital while many tech-heavy portfolios suffered steep losses.
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