📖David Swensen
Learn from Past Sells
Post-mortem every sell decision to improve.
After every sell, review the outcome. Did you sell too early, too late, or at the right time? Post-mortems on sell decisions improve future judgment.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
David Swensen sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Reviewing sell decisions sharpens future timing.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
Tech Bubble Resistance (2000)
Amid the dot-com boom, Swensen refused to chase soaring tech stocks, keeping Yale’s portfolio diversified and underweight in high-flying internet names.
✨ Outcome：Avoided the worst of the 2000–2002 crash, preserving capital while many tech-heavy portfolios suffered steep losses.
2
Sticking with Illiquid Assets (2008)
During the global financial crisis, private equity and real assets became illiquid and unpopular, but Swensen maintained Yale’s heavy allocation instead of selling at distressed prices.
✨ Outcome：These assets recovered strongly in subsequent years, contributing significantly to Yale’s long-term outperformance.
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