📖David Swensen
Process-Oriented Investing
Good process outperforms lucky outcomes over time.
Focus on process, not outcomes. A good process can produce bad outcomes in the short run, but will generate superior results over time.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
David Swensen sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Process discipline is more reliable than chasing results.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
Dot-Com Bubble Peak (2000)
Swensen’s Yale endowment policy rebalanced away from soaring U.S. growth stocks into underweighted bonds, real assets, and diversifiers as tech valuations became extreme.
✨ Outcome：Reduced drawdowns in 2000–2002 bear market and preserved capital to buy equities at cheaper prices.
2
Global Financial Crisis (2008)
As equities and illiquid assets plunged, Swensen’s disciplined rebalancing shifted funds from Treasuries and bonds back into depressed equities and alternative assets despite market panic.
✨ Outcome：Positioned the endowment for strong post-2009 recovery, outperforming many peers that de-risked near the bottom.
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