📖George Soros
Learn from Past Sells
Post-mortem every sell decision to improve.
After every sell, review the outcome. Did you sell too early, too late, or at the right time? Post-mortems on sell decisions improve future judgment.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
George Soros sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Reviewing sell decisions sharpens future timing.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
Asian Financial Crisis (1997)
Soros’ funds traded against overvalued Asian currencies as investor fear and deteriorating fundamentals amplified each other, triggering sharp devaluations.
✨ Outcome：Several Asian currencies collapsed, stock markets plunged, and Soros’ funds profited from short positions, though he faced political backlash.
2
Asian Financial Crisis in Thailand (1997)
Spotted flaw in Thailand’s fixed exchange rate with large short-term foreign debt and weakening competitiveness.
✨ Outcome：Shorted Thai baht and related assets; peg collapsed in July 1997, leading to sharp devaluation and profits for Soros’s fund.
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