📖George Soros

Review Your Investment Thesis

🌿 Intermediate★★★★☆

Regularly challenge your original investment thesis.

💬

Regularly review whether your original reasons for owning a stock still hold. If the facts change, change your mind. Holding a broken thesis is the costliest mistake.

— Soros on Soros,1995

🏠 Everyday Analogy

Long-term investing is like planting trees. Early progress looks slow, but compounding happens underground before it becomes visible.

📖 Core Interpretation

George Soros frames investing as a compounding game. Time amplifies quality and discipline, while unnecessary activity often destroys long-horizon returns.
💎 Key Insight:Adapting to new facts prevents holding broken investments.

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❓ Why It Matters

Short-term noise often forces investors out before value is realized. Long-term discipline increases the odds that fundamentals, not emotions, drive outcomes.

🎯 How to Practice

Extend research and review horizon, reduce unnecessary turnover, and adjust only when intrinsic value, risk, or opportunity cost materially changes.

⚠️ Common Pitfalls

Calling it long term while never reviewing thesis
Overtrading and damaging compounding
Ignoring opportunity cost and alternatives

📚 Case Studies

1
Asian Financial Crisis Thai Baht Short (1997)
Anticipating Thailand’s unsustainable peg and mounting foreign-debt vulnerabilities, Soros’s fund took large speculative short positions in the Thai baht and related assets.
✨ Outcome:The baht devalued sharply in 1997; Quantum Fund earned substantial profits, illustrating his readiness to commit large capital when macro imbalances seem inevitable.
2
Asian Financial Crisis Positioning (1997)
Quantum Fund cut exposure to vulnerable Asian currencies and equities as imbalances grew, avoiding crowded long positions before the crisis.
✨ Outcome:Preserved capital and avoided large drawdowns while many regional investors suffered heavy losses.

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