📖Warren Buffett
Great Company in Temporary Trouble
The best buying opportunities emerge when excellent companies face temporary setbacks.
The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
The key is to distinguish between: temporary difficulties and permanent decline. Characteristics of temporary difficulties: one-off events, industry cycles, excessive market sentiment reactions, intact core competitiveness.
💎 Key Insight：Distinguish between companies with permanent problems (disrupted business models, structural decline) and those with temporary ones (a bad quarter, a PR crisis, a cyclical downturn). Great businesses with temporary problems get sold by panicking investors at bargain prices. These are the moments that create generational wealth — if you have the cash and courage to act.
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❓ Why It Matters
How to determine if it is "temporary"? 1. Is the moat still intact? 2. Can this problem be resolved? 3. Is the market overreacting?
🎯 How to Practice
Historically, the most exceptional opportunities have often emerged from: scandals, litigation, economic crises, and industry downturns.
🎙️ Master's Voice
The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble. We want to buy them when they're on the operating table.
When Johnson & Johnson faced the Tylenol poisoning crisis in 1982, its stock plunged. The company's handling of the crisis—immediate recall and transparent communication—actually demonstrated its quality. Investors who bought during the crisis made exceptional returns as the brand emerged stronger.
⚔️ Practical Guide
✅ Decision Checklist
- Is this a temporary problem or permanent impairment?
- Does the company have the resources to recover?
- Is management handling the crisis well?
- Will the business be stronger in 5 years?
📋 Action Steps
- Maintain a watchlist of great companies to buy on weakness
- Distinguish between temporary and permanent problems
- Study how management handles adversity
- Calculate intrinsic value before the crisis hits
🚨 Warning Signs
- Buying just because the price dropped
- Ignoring signs of permanent competitive damage
- Catching falling knives without analysis
- Averaging down without understanding the problem
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
A decline in stock price presents a buying opportunity—the key is to determine whether it is a temporary issue or a permanent deterioration.
Excellent companies are not immune to problems – every company faces challenges; what matters is the ability to recover.
📚 Case Studies
1
沙拉油丑闻后的美国运通 (1963)
1963年美国运通因关联公司伪造沙拉油库存,被银行骗贷,导致巨额赔偿和信誉危机,市场恐慌抛售,其核心签账卡和旅行支票业务虽未受直接损害,但股价因信任危机暴跌约50%.
✨ Outcome：巴菲特大量买入,持有期间公司恢复信任与盈利,股价数年内显著反弹,成为其早期高回报经典案例.
2
华盛顿邮报广告萧条期 (1976)
1970年代中期,美国经济滞胀与广告市场低迷,华盛顿邮报报业收入锐减,股价跌至账面价值以下,投资者普遍担心电视与新媒体长期侵蚀纸媒,短期经营压力与情绪性抛售使估值极度压缩.
✨ Outcome：巴菲特在困境期增持,凭借其垄断地位和品牌优势,公司盈利随经济复苏强劲回升,市值多年内增长数倍.
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