📖Warren Buffett

Greedy When Others Fearful

🌿 Intermediate★★★★★

Contrarian thinking is the foundation of buying low and selling high.

💬

Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

— Berkshire Hathaway 2004 Letter to Shareholders，2004

🏠 Everyday Analogy

Just as premium vegetables are heavily discounted when the market is about to close, savvy buyers seize the opportunity to stock up. Conversely, when crowds rush to buy at inflated prices during peak hours, rational individuals choose to wait and observe. The stock market operates on the same principle: when others panic and sell, it presents an ideal moment to pick up bargains.

📖 Core Interpretation

When everyone is greedily chasing rising prices, the value is often already exceeded. When everyone is panicking and selling off, the price often already falls below the intrinsic value.
💎 Key Insight：This isn't about being contrarian for its own sake — it's about recognizing that extreme emotions create extreme mispricings. When everyone is fearful, prices drop below intrinsic value. When everyone is greedy, prices inflate beyond reason. The practical challenge is having both the cash and the psychological fortitude to act against the crowd.

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❓ Why It Matters

Implementation Challenges: 1. Identifying genuine fear/greed. 2. Overcoming one's own emotions. 3. Ensuring the accuracy of your judgment.

🎯 How to Practice

Practical Checklist: How fearful is the market? Has the fundamental picture truly changed? Do I genuinely understand the situation? Can I withstand a further decline of 30% or more?

🎙️ Master's Voice

The most common cause of low prices is pessimism. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism, but because we like the prices it produces.
In 2011, when the US credit rating was downgraded and markets panicked, Buffett bought more stocks. While others saw America declining, he saw a buying opportunity. He's consistently bought when headlines were worst—during the financial crisis, after 9/11, during COVID. Pessimism creates bargains.

⚔️ Practical Guide

✅ Decision Checklist

  • Am I buying when others are fearful?
  • Am I uncomfortable with this investment? (That's often good)
  • Is the pessimism priced into the stock?
  • Am I thinking independently of consensus?

📋 Action Steps

  1. Create a list of stocks to buy during the next crisis
  2. Set alerts for extreme negative sentiment
  3. Study past panics and what opportunities they created
  4. Keep cash for contrarian purchases

🚨 Warning Signs

  • Only buying stocks others recommend
  • Avoiding investments because they're out of favor
  • Needing validation before investing
  • Following the crowd in and out of positions

⚠️ Common Pitfalls

✕Buy when the market falls – but first determine whether it's a sentiment-driven decline or a deterioration in fundamentals.
✕Contrarian investing is always correct - being contrarian is merely a method; the prerequisite for success is that your judgment is sound.

📚 Case Studies

1
October 2008 (2008)
Published "I'm Buying U.S. Stocks" at the Peak of the Financial Crisis Panic
✨ Outcome：Buying Goldman Sachs and General Electric near the market bottom
2
March 2020 (2020)
During the pandemic panic, high-quality tech stocks were discounted by over 30%.
✨ Outcome：It was an excellent buying opportunity.

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