📖Warren Buffett

Ignore Short-Term Noise

🌿 Intermediate★★★★★

Invest as if the stock market will close tomorrow and not reopen for five years.

💬

I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.

— Multiple Interviews，2008

🏠 Everyday Analogy

Just like planting an apple tree, you wouldn’t dig it up to check its roots just because it’s windy or rainy today. A true orchardist cares about the soil, the variety, and the long-term climate—not the daily weather changes. Daily stock market fluctuations are like the weather; a company’s fundamentals are the soil that determines the harvest.

📖 Core Interpretation

Daily market fluctuations, news headlines, and expert forecasts are mostly noise. What truly matters are the fundamentals of the business.
💎 Key Insight：This mental exercise forces you to focus on what actually matters: business quality, competitive position, and management integrity. If you wouldn't want to own a stock for five years without seeing its price, you shouldn't own it for five minutes. Short-term price movements are noise; long-term business performance is signal.

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❓ Why It Matters

Warren Buffett's "Five-Year Market Closure" Test: If you would still be willing to hold an investment even if the stock market were to close for five years, then it is a good investment.

🎯 How to Practice

Reduce the frequency of checking stock quotes, avoid financial news, focus on annual reports rather than quarterly reports, and think in terms of 5- to 10-year horizons.

🎙️ Master's Voice

Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.
In Buffett's early partnership days, he bought a company called Dempster Mill Manufacturing. There was no active market for the shares. He had to improve the business itself to realize value. This forced him to think like an owner, not a trader—a mindset that shaped his entire career.

⚔️ Practical Guide

✅ Decision Checklist

  • Would I hold this if I couldn't sell for 5 years?
  • Am I investing or speculating?
  • Does this business earn attractive returns on capital?
  • Can this company grow without needing capital markets?

📋 Action Steps

  1. Imagine no stock market when making decisions
  2. Focus on business quality over liquidity
  3. Value businesses, not price movements
  4. Build portfolios that work without trading

🚨 Warning Signs

  • Buying based on expected price movements
  • Needing liquidity to make your investment work
  • Counting on the "greater fool"
  • Investing in businesses you wouldn't own privately

⚠️ Common Pitfalls

✕News is important - most news is noise, with truly significant information being rare.
✕One should follow the market closely - excessive monitoring often leads to emotional decision-making.

📚 Case Studies

1
Warren Buffett's Office (2008)
No stock quote terminal.
✨ Outcome：Deliberately Reducing Noise Interference
2
Market Volatility During the 2020 Pandemic (2020)
Sharp market fluctuations in the short term
✨ Outcome：Long-term investors should ignore

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