📖Jeremy Grantham
Integrity Above All
Integrity is the most valuable asset.
Reputation takes a lifetime to build and moments to destroy. In investing and in life, integrity is the most valuable asset you can possess.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Jeremy Grantham sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Reputation, once lost, is nearly impossible to rebuild.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
Avoiding the Tech Bubble (1999)
Grantham underweighted expensive tech stocks despite client pressure as valuations broke from historical norms.
✨ Outcome：Clients lagged during the final bubble phase but were largely spared the 2000–2002 crash, preserving capital and careers for patient managers.
2
Early Exit Before Global Financial Crisis (2007)
GMO reduced risk in equities and housing-related assets as Grantham warned of a major credit and housing bubble.
✨ Outcome：Some clients left due to short-term underperformance, but remaining investors suffered far smaller losses in 2008–2009, validating a risk-first approach.
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