📖Jeremy Grantham
Market Cycles Awareness
Understand where you are in the market cycle.
Markets move in cycles driven by human emotion. Understanding where you are in the cycle helps you prepare for what comes next and position accordingly.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Jeremy Grantham highlights that many investment mistakes are psychological, not analytical. Managing behavior under stress is as important as finding ideas.
💎 Key Insight：Cycle awareness improves investment timing.
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❓ Why It Matters
In volatile markets, fear and greed push investors to buy high and sell low. A behavioral framework reduces avoidable, self-inflicted errors.
🎯 How to Practice
Pre-write decision rules, slow down trades during stress, and separate market emotion from business facts before adjusting positions.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Following crowd emotion at extremes
Mistaking confidence for certainty
Forcing trades to quickly recover losses
📚 Case Studies
1
Asian Financial Crisis Aftermath (1998)
Grantham applied a value lens to battered Asian and other emerging markets following the 1997–98 crisis, arguing currencies and equities were deeply undervalued versus fundamentals.
✨ Outcome：Positions were volatile short term but generated strong multi‑year returns as economies stabilized and valuations normalized.
2
Brazil and Russia Commodity Slump (2015)
During the commodity price collapse, emerging markets, especially Brazil and Russia, traded at steep discounts. Grantham highlighted mean reversion and demographic tailwinds supporting long‑term value in these markets.
✨ Outcome：Near‑term underperformance was followed by solid rebounds as commodities and risk appetite recovered over subsequent years.
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