📖Jeremy Grantham
Sell Discipline Rules
Follow pre-defined sell criteria without emotion.
Have clear, pre-defined sell criteria. Sell when: your thesis is broken, valuation is fully realized, or a significantly better opportunity appears.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Jeremy Grantham advocates a repeatable process: define criteria, execute consistently, and review decisions against evidence. Process quality drives outcome consistency.
💎 Key Insight：Disciplined selling prevents emotional decision-making.
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❓ Why It Matters
Without process, there is no reliable feedback loop. Structured execution and review improve decision quality over time.
🎯 How to Practice
Run a decision loop of research, thesis, execution, and post-mortem; document assumptions and update playbooks with evidence, not hindsight bias.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Having opinions without execution criteria
Reviewing outcomes but not decisions
Abandoning rules during volatility spikes
📚 Case Studies
1
Pre-Global Financial Crisis Caution (2007)
Grantham warned of a broad asset bubble, cutting exposure to risk assets and tilting toward quality stocks, cash, and selected safe bonds.
✨ Outcome：Portfolios following his asset allocation shift experienced materially lower losses during 2008–2009 and preserved capital for post-crisis rebalancing.
2
Pre‑Crisis Housing and Credit Bubble (2007)
Grantham highlighted extreme overvaluation in housing, credit, and equities, cutting risk assets and raising quality and cash.
✨ Outcome：The 2008–2009 crash validated his forecast; defensive positioning preserved capital and enabled cheaper re‑entry afterward.
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