📖Jim Rogers
Know Your Limits
Stay within your circle of competence.
The most successful investors stay within their circle of competence. Know what you understand well and resist the temptation to venture outside it.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Jim Rogers advocates a repeatable process: define criteria, execute consistently, and review decisions against evidence. Process quality drives outcome consistency.
💎 Key Insight：Self-awareness about knowledge limits prevents costly mistakes.
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❓ Why It Matters
Without process, there is no reliable feedback loop. Structured execution and review improve decision quality over time.
🎯 How to Practice
Run a decision loop of research, thesis, execution, and post-mortem; document assumptions and update playbooks with evidence, not hindsight bias.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Having opinions without execution criteria
Reviewing outcomes but not decisions
Abandoning rules during volatility spikes
📚 Case Studies
1
Oil Spike and Crash (2008)
Rogers remained bullish as oil surged above $140, then collapsed during the global financial crisis amid demand shock and deleveraging.
✨ Outcome：Long‑term commodity investors who stayed invested saw partial recovery as emerging‑market demand and QE supported prices in the following years.
2
Shorting the Tech Bubble (1999)
Rogers publicly warned of the late-1990s U.S. technology stock bubble and positioned away from overvalued Nasdaq names, favoring commodities and real assets instead.
✨ Outcome：Avoided heavy losses when the dot-com bubble burst in 2000–2002, while commodity-related holdings began a multi‑year bull market.
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