📖Joel Greenblatt
Expand Knowledge Gradually
Expand expertise gradually, one area at a time.
Expand your circle of competence gradually over time. Each new area of expertise adds potential opportunities, but only if mastered thoroughly.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Joel Greenblatt sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Steady learning expands opportunity without increasing risk.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
Dr Pepper/Seven Up from Cadbury Schweppes (2002)
Cadbury Schweppes separated its U.S. beverages unit, leaving a more focused confectionery business and an underappreciated beverages spinoff with solid brands and cash flow.
✨ Outcome：Both parent and spinoff rerated upward over time as investors recognized better economics and clearer business focus.
2
American Express Recovery (2002)
Magic Formula ranked American Express highly after the tech bust when it was out of favor and trading at a low earnings yield.
✨ Outcome：Within several years, the stock delivered strong double‑digit annual returns as credit trends improved and valuation normalized.
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