📖Joel Greenblatt
Independent Thinking
Think independently from the crowd.
Think independently. The crowd is often wrong at extremes, and following popular opinion is a reliable path to mediocre returns. Form your own informed views.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Joel Greenblatt highlights that many investment mistakes are psychological, not analytical. Managing behavior under stress is as important as finding ideas.
💎 Key Insight：Independent thinking is essential for above-average returns.
AI Deep Analysis
Get personalized insights and practical guidance through AI conversation
❓ Why It Matters
In volatile markets, fear and greed push investors to buy high and sell low. A behavioral framework reduces avoidable, self-inflicted errors.
🎯 How to Practice
Pre-write decision rules, slow down trades during stress, and separate market emotion from business facts before adjusting positions.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Following crowd emotion at extremes
Mistaking confidence for certainty
Forcing trades to quickly recover losses
📚 Case Studies
1
American Express Spin-Off Opportunity (2004)
Greenblatt analyzed American Express when it was temporarily out of favor, trading below its intrinsic value based on earnings and returns on capital.
✨ Outcome：Invested at depressed prices, earning strong returns as earnings normalized and the market rerated the stock.
2
McDonald's Temporary Earnings Slump (2002)
McDonald’s faced operational issues and lower earnings, leading investors to punish the stock despite strong underlying economics and durable brand strength.
✨ Outcome：Bought during the period of pessimism and profited significantly as operations improved and the valuation reverted upward.
See how masters handle real scenarios?
30 real investment dilemmas answered by legendary investors
Explore Scenarios →