📖Joel Greenblatt
Market Cycles Awareness
Understand where you are in the market cycle.
Markets move in cycles driven by human emotion. Understanding where you are in the cycle helps you prepare for what comes next and position accordingly.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Joel Greenblatt highlights that many investment mistakes are psychological, not analytical. Managing behavior under stress is as important as finding ideas.
💎 Key Insight：Cycle awareness improves investment timing.
AI Deep Analysis
Get personalized insights and practical guidance through AI conversation
❓ Why It Matters
In volatile markets, fear and greed push investors to buy high and sell low. A behavioral framework reduces avoidable, self-inflicted errors.
🎯 How to Practice
Pre-write decision rules, slow down trades during stress, and separate market emotion from business facts before adjusting positions.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Following crowd emotion at extremes
Mistaking confidence for certainty
Forcing trades to quickly recover losses
📚 Case Studies
1
Spin-off: Liberty Media from AT&T (2000)
AT&T spun off Liberty Media, which appeared complex and overlooked. Greenblatt analyzed underlying assets and saw a large discount to intrinsic value.
✨ Outcome：Held through volatility; as the market recognized underlying media asset value, returns were multiples of initial investment over several years.
2
American Express Post-Asia/Russian Crises (2001)
American Express traded at depressed multiples after emerging market and Russian crises hurt travel and card volumes.
✨ Outcome：Greenblatt’s long-term view on brand strength and card economics led to holding; as conditions normalized, valuation rerated and produced strong multi-year gains.
See how masters handle real scenarios?
30 real investment dilemmas answered by legendary investors
Explore Scenarios →