📖Joel Greenblatt
Wait for the Right Opportunity
Wait for exceptional risk-reward opportunities.
The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at every pitch. Wait for the fat pitch — the opportunity that offers exceptional risk-reward.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Joel Greenblatt treats survival as the first objective. Limiting permanent capital loss, controlling leverage, and avoiding single-point failure are prerequisites for long-term compounding.
💎 Key Insight：Selectivity dramatically improves investment outcomes.
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❓ Why It Matters
A single large drawdown can erase years of progress. Risk control is not timidity; it is the operating system that keeps compounding alive.
🎯 How to Practice
Define downside scenarios before entry, cap position size, avoid fragile leverage, and maintain liquidity so mistakes remain survivable.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Equating volatility with all forms of risk
Oversized positions without an exit plan
Using leverage to compensate for uncertainty
📚 Case Studies
1
Dot-Com Bubble Peak (2000)
Portfolio heavily tilted to soaring tech stocks after big gains in 1999.
✨ Outcome：Annual rebalance trimmed tech, added undervalued cyclicals; reduced subsequent crash losses and improved 5-year risk-adjusted returns.
2
Pre-Crisis Risk Trim (2008)
Strong run in financials and commodities made them oversized allocations by mid-2008.
✨ Outcome：Annual rebalance cut exposure and added defensives; drawdown in 2008–2009 was smaller and recovery to prior peak occurred faster.
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