📖John Bogle
Review Your Investment Thesis
Regularly challenge your original investment thesis.
Regularly review whether your original reasons for owning a stock still hold. If the facts change, change your mind. Holding a broken thesis is the costliest mistake.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
John Bogle frames investing as a compounding game. Time amplifies quality and discipline, while unnecessary activity often destroys long-horizon returns.
💎 Key Insight：Adapting to new facts prevents holding broken investments.
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❓ Why It Matters
Short-term noise often forces investors out before value is realized. Long-term discipline increases the odds that fundamentals, not emotions, drive outcomes.
🎯 How to Practice
Extend research and review horizon, reduce unnecessary turnover, and adjust only when intrinsic value, risk, or opportunity cost materially changes.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Calling it long term while never reviewing thesis
Overtrading and damaging compounding
Ignoring opportunity cost and alternatives
📚 Case Studies
1
Warren Buffett Ignores Daily Panic in 2008 (2008)
During the 2008 financial crisis, stock prices collapsed and media coverage was overwhelmingly negative. Many investors checked portfolios constantly and sold in fear. Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway holdings plunged billions on paper, refused to monitor short‑term price moves or trade reactively, instead focusing on long‑term business value.
✨ Outcome：Those who sold near the bottom locked in losses, while Buffett’s hold-and-buy-more approach participated fully in the recovery. Lesson: ignoring daily price noise reduces panic-driven selling and improves long-term results.
2
Jack Bogle’s Steady Course After the Dot‑Com Bust (2001)
After the 2000–2002 dot‑com crash, many tech-heavy portfolios fell over 70%. Investors who watched the Nasdaq plunge day after day dumped stocks and fled to cash. John Bogle publicly urged index investors to stay the course, avoid constant checking, and keep contributing regularly despite the headlines.
✨ Outcome：Investors who sold in fear missed the powerful 2003–2007 rebound. Long-term index holders who ignored short-term swings recovered and compounded. Lesson: not peeking helps you avoid emotional exits after crashes.
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