📖John Neff
Capital Allocation Assessment
Evaluate management's capital allocation skills.
The most important skill for a CEO is capital allocation. Evaluate how management deploys capital — do they create or destroy value with their decisions?
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Capital Allocation Assessment, John Neff focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：Capital allocation is the CEO's most impactful decision.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
Exiting Overvalued Retailers (1991)
After a strong late-1980s run, Neff sold or cut retail names whose prices outran their earnings power, despite continued market enthusiasm.
✨ Outcome：Subsequent multiple compression hurt many retailers; Windsor under Neff avoided larger drawdowns and rotated capital into better risk‑reward stocks.
2
Ford Motor Recession Bargain (1973)
During the 1973–74 bear market, Neff bought Ford at a low P/E when auto demand slumped and sentiment was extremely negative.
✨ Outcome：As the economy recovered, Ford’s earnings rebounded and the stock price rose several-fold over the following years.
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