📖John Neff
Independent Thinking
Think independently from the crowd.
Think independently. The crowd is often wrong at extremes, and following popular opinion is a reliable path to mediocre returns. Form your own informed views.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
John Neff highlights that many investment mistakes are psychological, not analytical. Managing behavior under stress is as important as finding ideas.
💎 Key Insight：Independent thinking is essential for above-average returns.
AI Deep Analysis
Get personalized insights and practical guidance through AI conversation
❓ Why It Matters
In volatile markets, fear and greed push investors to buy high and sell low. A behavioral framework reduces avoidable, self-inflicted errors.
🎯 How to Practice
Pre-write decision rules, slow down trades during stress, and separate market emotion from business facts before adjusting positions.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Following crowd emotion at extremes
Mistaking confidence for certainty
Forcing trades to quickly recover losses
📚 Case Studies
1
Black Monday Crash (1987)
During the October 1987 crash, Neff avoided expensive growth stocks and held diversified, low P/E, high-dividend names.
✨ Outcome：Fund fell less than S&P 500 and recovered faster, illustrating how valuation discipline and income cushion limited downside damage.
2
Ford Motor Turnaround (1974)
During the 1973–74 bear market, Ford traded at a very low P/E as auto demand slumped. Neff bought heavily, believing earnings would normalize when recession and oil-shock fears eased.
✨ Outcome：Within several years, Ford rebounded sharply, delivering substantial gains and validating the low P/E contrarian bet.
See how masters handle real scenarios?
30 real investment dilemmas answered by legendary investors
Explore Scenarios →