📖John Neff
Industry Structure Analysis
Industry structure shapes investment outcomes.
Understand the industry structure before evaluating any company. Industry economics often matter more than company-specific factors in determining returns.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
John Neff emphasizes durable business quality over short-term noise. A strong model, real competitive edge, and disciplined capital allocation matter more than quarterly excitement.
💎 Key Insight：Industry economics often matter more than company specifics.
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❓ Why It Matters
Without business-quality filters, investors drift toward stories rather than economics. Durable cash generation is what supports long-term valuation.
🎯 How to Practice
Use a checklist covering moat, management, unit economics, and capital allocation; track long-term cash generation instead of quarter-to-quarter noise.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Buying narratives instead of cash-generating economics
Overreacting to short-term operating noise
Ignoring management quality and capital allocation
📚 Case Studies
1
Oil Shock Recession (1973)
Neff bought undervalued cyclical stocks hit by 1973–74 bear market, emphasizing low P/E and strong cash flows despite recession fears.
✨ Outcome：Portfolio declined less than market and rebounded strongly as earnings normalized, demonstrating focus on downside protection via valuation.
2
Black Monday Crash (1987)
During the October 1987 crash, Neff avoided expensive growth stocks and held diversified, low P/E, high-dividend names.
✨ Outcome：Fund fell less than S&P 500 and recovered faster, illustrating how valuation discipline and income cushion limited downside damage.
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