📖John Neff
Wait for the Right Opportunity
Wait for exceptional risk-reward opportunities.
The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at every pitch. Wait for the fat pitch — the opportunity that offers exceptional risk-reward.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
John Neff treats survival as the first objective. Limiting permanent capital loss, controlling leverage, and avoiding single-point failure are prerequisites for long-term compounding.
💎 Key Insight：Selectivity dramatically improves investment outcomes.
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❓ Why It Matters
A single large drawdown can erase years of progress. Risk control is not timidity; it is the operating system that keeps compounding alive.
🎯 How to Practice
Define downside scenarios before entry, cap position size, avoid fragile leverage, and maintain liquidity so mistakes remain survivable.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Equating volatility with all forms of risk
Oversized positions without an exit plan
Using leverage to compensate for uncertainty
📚 Case Studies
1
Ford Motor Rebound (1981)
During recession and auto slump, Neff accumulated Ford at high yield and depressed valuation while sentiment was extremely negative.
✨ Outcome：As industry recovered and earnings normalized, stock rerated and dividends plus price gains generated outsized returns.
2
Ford Motor Post-Oil Shock (1974)
After the 1973–74 oil crisis, auto stocks plunged. Neff bought Ford at low P/E with solid dividend and restructuring underway.
✨ Outcome：Ford rebounded strongly as U.S. economy stabilized, delivering market‑beating returns while its valuation normalized.
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