📖Julian Robertson
Price vs Value Disconnect
Prices diverge from value short-term but converge long-term.
In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it's a weighing machine. Prices can diverge wildly from value, but eventually converge.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Price vs Value Disconnect, Julian Robertson focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：The voting-to-weighing machine transition is inevitable.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
Teaching Fundamental Stock Picking (1980)
Robertson trains young analysts at Tiger Management to focus on deep fundamental research, concentrated bets, and strict risk control.
✨ Outcome：Many protégés adopt his style and later found successful hedge funds, reinforcing that apprenticeship can scale investment skill.
2
Tiger Closure and Lessons to Protégés (2000)
After tech bubble pain, Robertson closes Tiger Management but spends extensive time debriefing and mentoring former team members.
✨ Outcome：Ex-Tiger analysts launch ‘Tiger Cubs’ funds, applying lessons on valuation discipline, position sizing, and downside protection to decades of outperformance.
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