📖Julian Robertson
Value Discipline
Discipline in valuation determines investment success.
Never overpay for a security, no matter how exciting the story. The price you pay determines your return. Discipline in valuation is the foundation of investment success.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Value Discipline, Julian Robertson focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：The price paid is the most important variable.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
Subprime Shorts and Financial Crisis (2007)
Robertson-backed Tiger Cubs identified housing excesses and shorted subprime-linked financials, while holding high-quality global growth stocks.
✨ Outcome：Hedge funds inspired by Robertson’s strategy generated strong absolute returns through 2008–2009, highlighting disciplined research and risk control as a best-practice approach.
2
Shorting Overvalued Tech Stocks (1999)
Robertson’s deep value research led him to short highly valued, profitless dot-com and tech stocks at Tiger Management.
✨ Outcome：Large interim losses forced fund closure in 2000, but thesis proved right as many targets later collapsed in the dot-com bust.
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