📖Li Lu
Contrarian Thinking
Good investments often feel uncomfortable.
The best investments often feel uncomfortable because they go against popular opinion. If everyone loves a stock, it's probably overpriced. If everyone hates it, investigate.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Contrarian Thinking, Li Lu focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：Popularity signals overvaluation; hatred signals opportunity.
AI Deep Analysis
Get personalized insights and practical guidance through AI conversation
❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
Himalaya Capital and Chinese Banks (2003)
Li Lu analyzed major Chinese financial institutions, focusing on simple, comprehensible retail banking models, state backing, and durable deposit franchises he understood well from years studying China’s reforms.
✨ Outcome：Invested selectively; positions appreciated significantly as China’s banking system strengthened and valuations normalized.
2
Early Bet on Chinese Internet (1999)
Li Lu invested in Sina before its U.S. listing, recognizing China’s emerging internet and media demand amid skepticism about Chinese tech firms.
✨ Outcome：IPO succeeded; Sina became a major portal and early investment appreciated significantly, reinforcing his conviction in China’s structural growth.
See how masters handle real scenarios?
30 real investment dilemmas answered by legendary investors
Explore Scenarios →