📖Li Lu
Core Investment Philosophy
A clear philosophy anchors you in turbulent times.
A clear investment philosophy provides an anchor in turbulent times. Know what you believe, why you believe it, and stick to it when tested.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Li Lu sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Conviction based on logic survives market storms.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
BYD Initial Investment (2002)
Li Lu studied Chinese battery maker BYD, leveraging his deep understanding of China and technology to judge its moat, management, and growth prospects within his circle of competence.
✨ Outcome：Invested early; BYD compounded massively over decades, becoming one of Berkshire-related circle-of-competence success stories.
2
Himalaya Capital and Chinese Banks (2003)
Li Lu analyzed major Chinese financial institutions, focusing on simple, comprehensible retail banking models, state backing, and durable deposit franchises he understood well from years studying China’s reforms.
✨ Outcome：Invested selectively; positions appreciated significantly as China’s banking system strengthened and valuations normalized.
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