📖Li Lu
Crowd Behavior Awareness
Act when the crowd is at emotional extremes.
Understanding crowd psychology is essential. When everyone agrees, the opportunity has usually passed. The best time to act is when the crowd is most fearful or most confident.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Li Lu highlights that many investment mistakes are psychological, not analytical. Managing behavior under stress is as important as finding ideas.
💎 Key Insight：Crowd consensus signals exhausted opportunities.
AI Deep Analysis
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❓ Why It Matters
In volatile markets, fear and greed push investors to buy high and sell low. A behavioral framework reduces avoidable, self-inflicted errors.
🎯 How to Practice
Pre-write decision rules, slow down trades during stress, and separate market emotion from business facts before adjusting positions.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Following crowd emotion at extremes
Mistaking confidence for certainty
Forcing trades to quickly recover losses
📚 Case Studies
1
Investment in BYD (1999)
Li Lu analyzed BYD’s technological and cost advantages in batteries and autos, seeing a durable moat in engineering talent and vertical integration.
✨ Outcome：Backed BYD early; Berkshire Hathaway later invested, and BYD became a multibagger over the following decade.
2
Post‑SARS Chinese Banks Review (2003)
Li Lu studied major Chinese banks after SARS, focusing on their deposit franchises, regulatory protection, and scale advantages as moat characteristics.
✨ Outcome：Selected top institutions with strong moats and avoided weaker lenders, resulting in superior long‑term returns versus the Chinese financial sector.
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