📖Li Lu
Process-Oriented Investing
Good process outperforms lucky outcomes over time.
Focus on process, not outcomes. A good process can produce bad outcomes in the short run, but will generate superior results over time.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Li Lu sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Process discipline is more reliable than chasing results.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
BYD Investment with Berkshire (2008)
Li Lu introduced Warren Buffett to BYD, investing when markets doubted Chinese automakers and battery technology, focusing on electric vehicles and energy storage.
✨ Outcome：BYD’s value multiplied over the following decade, becoming one of the world’s leading EV and battery companies, validating the long-term China opportunity.
2
Hainan Airlines Investment (1998)
Li Lu invested in Hainan Airlines when it faced financial distress, focusing on long‑term business value rather than market pessimism.
✨ Outcome：The airline recovered and expanded; the investment compounded significantly, illustrating owner mentality and patience.
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