📖Howard Marks
Being Right Isn't Enough
Correctness without timing can still lead to losses.
Being right about something isn't at all synonymous with being right about it at the right time. You can be right about the value of something and still lose money if you're early.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Being Right Isn't Enough, Howard Marks focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：Patience and timing are as important as analysis.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
Pre-2008 Credit Excess (2006)
Marks warned about loose lending standards, complex structured products, and compressed credit spreads in his memos.
✨ Outcome：Oaktree reduced risk and held ample liquidity, enabling it to buy distressed debt at attractive prices during the 2008–2009 crisis.
2
Avoiding Dot-Com Bubble Excess (2000)
Marks emphasized valuation discipline and skepticism toward profitless tech stocks, steering Oaktree away from speculative internet names at bubble peak.
✨ Outcome：Avoided large losses when the bubble burst, preserving capital and enabling later investment in discounted quality companies.
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