📖Howard Marks
Wisdom of Humility
Embrace uncertainty as the reality of investing.
The wise investor knows that certainty is an illusion. Embrace uncertainty, prepare for the unexpected, and never assume you know what's coming next.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Howard Marks advocates a repeatable process: define criteria, execute consistently, and review decisions against evidence. Process quality drives outcome consistency.
💎 Key Insight：Humility about the future improves decision-making.
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❓ Why It Matters
Without process, there is no reliable feedback loop. Structured execution and review improve decision quality over time.
🎯 How to Practice
Run a decision loop of research, thesis, execution, and post-mortem; document assumptions and update playbooks with evidence, not hindsight bias.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Having opinions without execution criteria
Reviewing outcomes but not decisions
Abandoning rules during volatility spikes
📚 Case Studies
1
Avoiding Overpriced High-Yield Energy Bonds (2015)
During the shale boom, investors eagerly funded energy issuers. Marks saw inadequate risk premiums and waited. When oil prices collapsed, many energy bonds fell sharply into distressed territory.
✨ Outcome：By staying patient, Oaktree later bought select issues at deep discounts, earning superior returns versus those who bought early at rich prices.
2
Long-Term Capital Management (1998)
LTCM used heavy leverage on complex bond arbitrage strategies, assuming models captured all risks. Unexpected Russian default and market turmoil exposed blind spots.
✨ Outcome：Fund collapsed and required a Fed-brokered bailout, highlighting dangers of overconfidence and model risk.
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