📖Peter Lynch

Overvaluation

🌿 Intermediate★★★★★

A stock priced for perfection has no margin for error — any disappointment triggers a sharp decline.

💬

When the P/E ratio gets too high relative to growth prospects, it's time to sell.

— *One Up On Wall Street*，1989

🏠 Everyday Analogy

Just like buying vegetables at the market, you must let go of even the most delicious cabbage when its price per pound reaches that of meat. Stock valuation is the price tag—when the P/E ratio far exceeds the growth rate, it means you are paying for the distant future. Smart investors will choose to step aside and wait.

📖 Core Interpretation

Consider selling when the PEG ratio is significantly higher than 2 or when the P/E ratio is substantially above the growth rate.
💎 Key Insight：When a stock trades at 40 times earnings but growth is only 15%, the math does not work. The market is pricing in years of flawless execution that rarely materializes. Lynch sells when the P/E ratio far exceeds the growth rate (PEG above 2). At extreme valuations, even meeting expectations may not prevent a decline. The risk-reward at high valuations is always unfavorable.

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❓ Why It Matters

An excessively high valuation implies that even strong performance may lead to a decline in the stock price.

🎯 How to Practice

When the PEG ratio exceeds 2 or when valuations are at historically high levels, gradually reduce positions.

🎙️ Master's Voice

People who want to know how stocks fared on any given day ask, Where did the Dow close? I am more interested in how many stocks went up versus how many went down.
Lynch looked at market breadth, not just headlines. Broad participation signaled health; narrow leadership signaled risk.

⚔️ Practical Guide

✅ Decision Checklist

  • How broad is market participation?
  • Am I looking beyond headlines?
  • Is the market healthy?

📋 Action Steps

  1. Track market breadth
  2. Look beyond index movements
  3. Assess overall market health

🚨 Warning Signs

  • Narrow market leadership
  • Only watching headlines
  • Ignoring breadth

⚠️ Common Pitfalls

✕Outstanding companies can sustain higher valuations.
✕Do not focus solely on valuation while overlooking quality.

📚 Case Studies

1
Taco Bell Takeover (1983)
Lynch observed market enthusiasm pushing restaurant stocks to high P/Es. He judged Taco Bell overvalued relative to growth, despite strong same-store sales and expansion potential.
✨ Outcome：Trimmed and rotated into cheaper growth names, later re‑entering after valuation normalized.
2
Pre‑Crash Market Euphoria (1987)
In 1987, broad U.S. equities traded at stretched multiples as optimism surged. Many cyclical and growth stocks outran their earnings power, a classic overvaluation setup Lynch warned about.
✨ Outcome：Reduced exposure to most overvalued holdings before the October crash, preserving capital for post‑crash bargains.

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