📖Paul Tudor Jones
Sell Discipline Rules
Follow pre-defined sell criteria without emotion.
Have clear, pre-defined sell criteria. Sell when: your thesis is broken, valuation is fully realized, or a significantly better opportunity appears.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Paul Tudor Jones advocates a repeatable process: define criteria, execute consistently, and review decisions against evidence. Process quality drives outcome consistency.
💎 Key Insight：Disciplined selling prevents emotional decision-making.
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❓ Why It Matters
Without process, there is no reliable feedback loop. Structured execution and review improve decision quality over time.
🎯 How to Practice
Run a decision loop of research, thesis, execution, and post-mortem; document assumptions and update playbooks with evidence, not hindsight bias.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Having opinions without execution criteria
Reviewing outcomes but not decisions
Abandoning rules during volatility spikes
📚 Case Studies
1
Pre-Black Monday Crash Bet (1987)
Anticipated market crash using technical signals and macro concerns. Built large short equity index futures positions while tightly limiting downside risk via options and stop-loss discipline.
✨ Outcome：Portfolio reportedly gained over 60% in 1987, preserving capital during the crash and exemplifying an asymmetric risk-reward profile.
2
German Reunification Macro Trade (1990)
Expected German interest rates to rise after reunification due to fiscal pressure and inflation risk. Took leveraged positions in German bonds and currencies with defined downside via options structures.
✨ Outcome：Profited significantly as rates rose and the Deutsche mark strengthened, illustrating asymmetric upside from a well-framed macro thesis.
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