📖Paul Tudor Jones
Value Discipline
Discipline in valuation determines investment success.
Never overpay for a security, no matter how exciting the story. The price you pay determines your return. Discipline in valuation is the foundation of investment success.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Value Discipline, Paul Tudor Jones focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：The price paid is the most important variable.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
Black Monday Crash (1987)
Jones anticipated the 1987 crash using technical signals and macro concerns. While markets panicked, he stuck to his plan, sized correctly, and avoided emotional decisions.
✨ Outcome：Generated significant gains while major indices collapsed over 20% in a single day.
2
Bond Market Turmoil (1994)
During the 1994 bond selloff, Jones trimmed risk early as yields spiked. He resisted the urge to double down emotionally on losing positions, focusing instead on capital preservation.
✨ Outcome：Limited drawdowns compared to peers and preserved capital for later opportunities.
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