📖John Templeton
Buy Value, Not Trends
Invest based on fundamental value, not price trends.
People who buy for price trends, technical charts, or momentum are speculating. An investor buys what has good fundamental value.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Buy Value, Not Trends, John Templeton focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：Value investing differs fundamentally from speculation.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
Investing in Postwar Japan (1954)
While most U.S. investors avoided Japan after WWII, Templeton bought undervalued Japanese equities amid reconstruction and negative sentiment toward the country.
✨ Outcome：Japanese stocks soared over subsequent decades, delivering outsized returns and validating his thesis of going where the crowd is absent.
2
Dot-Com Bubble Caution (1999)
Templeton warned that tech stocks were overpriced and avoided the mania, buying out-of-favor value stocks instead of chasing momentum.
✨ Outcome：He underperformed briefly during the bubble, but preserved capital and outperformed after the 2000–2002 crash.
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