📖John Templeton
Mastering Fear and Greed
Don't believe 'this time it's different.'
The four most dangerous words in investing are 'this time it's different.' Fear and greed always drive markets to extremes.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
John Templeton highlights that many investment mistakes are psychological, not analytical. Managing behavior under stress is as important as finding ideas.
💎 Key Insight：Fear and greed create recurring market patterns.
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❓ Why It Matters
In volatile markets, fear and greed push investors to buy high and sell low. A behavioral framework reduces avoidable, self-inflicted errors.
🎯 How to Practice
Pre-write decision rules, slow down trades during stress, and separate market emotion from business facts before adjusting positions.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Following crowd emotion at extremes
Mistaking confidence for certainty
Forcing trades to quickly recover losses
📚 Case Studies
1
Staying Invested Through Japan’s Bubble Peak (1990)
Templeton had gradually reduced Japanese exposure before the 1989 peak but maintained select, undervalued global holdings through the subsequent volatility of the early 1990s.
✨ Outcome：Disciplined patience and focus on global bargains helped his funds outperform over the following decade.
2
Buying at Outbreak of WWII (1939)
Templeton borrowed money to buy 100 shares each of 104 depressed U.S. stocks under $1 as war began in Europe, based on research that pessimism was extreme and many firms were still fundamentally viable.
✨ Outcome：Within a few years most positions recovered or prospered, turning a small, risky purchase basket into a strong multi‑bagger and forming the basis of his contrarian, research‑driven reputation.
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