📖John Templeton
Proven Management Track Record
Seek proven management that creates shareholder value.
Look for companies whose management has a proven track record of creating shareholder value. Past performance of management is the best predictor.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Proven Management Track Record, John Templeton focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：Good management track records predict future success.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
Pre‑Crash Profit Taking (1987)
Ahead of the October 1987 crash, Templeton sold selected U.S. and developed‑market equities that had doubled or more, following his valuation and discipline rules.
✨ Outcome：Losses were limited during the crash, and cash raised was redeployed into high‑quality stocks at distressed prices.
2
1973–74 Bear Market Bottom (1974)
After oil shock and recession, US stocks plunged ~45%. Sentiment was deeply negative and many predicted prolonged stagnation.
✨ Outcome：Templeton bought broadly near lows; over the next decade, US equities entered a long bull market, compounding substantial returns.
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