📖John Templeton
Time, Not Timing
Don't try to time the market.
The best time to invest is when you have money. Attempting to time the market is a losing strategy over the long run.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
John Templeton sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Time in the market beats timing the market.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
Post-Black Monday Bargain Hunting (1987)
After the October 1987 market crash, Templeton selectively bought high-quality global stocks whose prices had fallen far more than their fundamentals.
✨ Outcome：Many positions rebounded strongly over the next few years, validating his approach of buying when others were fearful.
2
Investing in Postwar Japan (1954)
While most U.S. investors avoided Japan after WWII, Templeton bought undervalued Japanese equities amid reconstruction and negative sentiment toward the country.
✨ Outcome：Japanese stocks soared over subsequent decades, delivering outsized returns and validating his thesis of going where the crowd is absent.
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