📖William Gann

Time Cycles

🌳 Advanced★★★★☆

Time cycles are the foundation of market prediction.

💬

Time is the most important factor in trading. Markets move in cycles, and understanding these time cycles allows you to predict turning points with greater accuracy.

— Truth of the Stock Tape，1923

🏠 Everyday Analogy

Think of markets like ocean tides on a beach. Even though each wave looks different, the tide itself follows a rough schedule—high tide and low tide come at fairly predictable times. Time cycles are that tidal timetable for prices: they don’t tell you the exact shape of the next wave, but they warn you when the sea is more likely to surge or retreat so you don’t build your sandcastle at the wrong moment.

📖 Core Interpretation

Markets are governed by natural time cycles that repeat predictably
💎 Key Insight：Gann believed time was more important than price. Markets move in predictable cycles based on natural laws and mathematical relationships. By studying historical time patterns, traders can anticipate trend changes. This principle emphasizes that waiting for the right time is often more crucial than identifying the right price.

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❓ Why It Matters

Gann reportedly predicted the 1929 crash using his time cycle analysis

🎯 How to Practice

Study historical cycles of 7, 10, 20, and 60 years to anticipate major turns

🎙️ Master's Voice

Time is the most important factor in determining market movements.
William Gann believed time cycles were the key to market prediction. He studied historical patterns obsessively to understand when markets would turn. Timing, not just direction, was his focus.

⚔️ Practical Guide

✅ Decision Checklist

  • What time cycles might be affecting this market?
  • When might a turn be due based on history?
  • Am I considering timing, not just direction?

📋 Action Steps

  1. Study historical time cycles
  2. Note when major turns have occurred
  3. Consider timing in your analysis

🚨 Warning Signs

  • Ignoring timing in analysis
  • Only focusing on direction
  • Not studying historical patterns

⚠️ Common Pitfalls

✕Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
✕Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
✕Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs

📚 Case Studies

1
Pre‑Crash Market Peaks (1929)
Using Gann’s time cycles and 20-year repetition, an investor noted a major top forming in 1929, echoing 1909–1910 behavior.
✨ Outcome：Reduced equity exposure before the October crash, preserving capital and later buying quality stocks at deep discounts.
2
Cycle Repetition and Crash (1987)
Studying Gann’s time counts and seasonal patterns, an investor anticipated heightened risk around October 1987.
✨ Outcome：Bought protective puts and trimmed leveraged positions before Black Monday, limiting portfolio losses and reallocating into undervalued blue chips afterward.

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