📖Philip Fisher
Three Reasons to Sell
Sell only when original thesis breaks or better opportunities emerge.
Sell only when: 1) You made a mistake in original analysis, 2) The company no longer meets the fifteen points, or 3) A clearly better opportunity exists.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Have clear, predetermined criteria for selling. Don't sell on emotion or short-term price moves.
💎 Key Insight：Admitting analytical errors early prevents small losses from becoming large ones. If facts prove your initial assessment wrong, exit immediately rather than hoping for recovery. When a company no longer meets your quality criteria due to management changes, competitive erosion, or market saturation, holding becomes speculation. Finally, if you discover an opportunity substantially superior to current holdings, reallocating capital maximizes returns. Discipline in selling badly chosen or deteriorating positions is as important as discipline in buying.
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❓ Why It Matters
Selling discipline prevents both premature selling and holding losers too long.
🎯 How to Practice
Document your investment thesis. Review periodically against original criteria.
🎙️ Master's Voice
Excellent management is the most important factor in evaluating a company for long-term investment.
Fisher placed management quality above all other factors. He believed that great managers could overcome industry challenges while poor managers could destroy even the best businesses.
⚔️ Practical Guide
✅ Decision Checklist
- Is management excellent?
- Do they have integrity and ability?
- How have they performed in difficult times?
📋 Action Steps
- Evaluate management before financials
- Study management track record over years
- Assess integrity through actions, not words
🚨 Warning Signs
- Ignoring management quality
- Trusting words over actions
- Investing despite poor management
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Rationalizing holding deteriorating positions
Selling winners too early
📚 Case Studies
1
Motorola Competitive Erosion (1965)
Fisher favorite Motorola faces rising Japanese and U.S. competitors in semiconductors and consumer electronics, compressing margins and weakening its technological edge.
✨ Outcome：Applying “three reasons to sell,” an investor trims the position as its leadership wanes, reallocating to stronger growth franchises.
2
IBM Structural Weakness Realized (1993)
IBM, once dominant in mainframes, struggles with PCs and services transition. Market share declines, culture resists change, and earnings disappoint repeatedly.
✨ Outcome：Using Fisher’s criteria, an investor sells as it becomes clear IBM’s advantages eroded, later redeploying into emerging technology leaders of the 1990s.
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