📖William Gann

Business Moat Assessment

🌿 Intermediate★★★★★

Identify sustainable competitive moats before investing.

💬

Before investing, identify the moat — the sustainable competitive advantage that protects the business from competitors. No moat means no long-term edge.

— 45 Years in Wall Street,1949

🏠 Everyday Analogy

Analyzing a business is like choosing a long-term partner. Temporary excitement matters less than durable character, capability, and consistency.

📖 Core Interpretation

W.D. Gann emphasizes durable business quality over short-term noise. A strong model, real competitive edge, and disciplined capital allocation matter more than quarterly excitement.
💎 Key Insight:Moats protect earnings from competitive erosion.

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❓ Why It Matters

Without business-quality filters, investors drift toward stories rather than economics. Durable cash generation is what supports long-term valuation.

🎯 How to Practice

Use a checklist covering moat, management, unit economics, and capital allocation; track long-term cash generation instead of quarter-to-quarter noise.

⚠️ Common Pitfalls

Buying narratives instead of cash-generating economics
Overreacting to short-term operating noise
Ignoring management quality and capital allocation

📚 Case Studies

1
Dot-Com Bubble Peak (2000)
The NASDAQ in early 2000 broke its prior swing lows, forming a clear downtrend per Gann’s rule of lower highs and lower lows after a parabolic rise.
✨ Outcome:Investors who sold when the trend reversed sidestepped years of heavy tech stock drawdowns.
2
Dow Jones Crash and Gann Retracements (1929)
After the 1929 peak near 381, the Dow plunged and later retraced key Gann levels, notably around the 50% and 62.5% zones, signaling potential resistance and trading opportunities for disciplined followers of percentage retracement rules.
✨ Outcome:Traders using Gann retracements managed risk, capturing partial rebounds while avoiding full re-entry before a durable long-term bottom.

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