📖William Gann
Conservative Valuation Approach
Conservative valuation protects against overpaying.
Use conservative assumptions in your valuation. Optimistic projections lead to overpaying. It is better to underestimate value and be pleasantly surprised than to overestimate and be disappointed.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Conservative Valuation Approach, W.D. Gann focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：Pessimistic estimates create a built-in margin of safety.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
Pre-Crash Market Top Projection (1929)
Using Master Charts, Gann identified resistance levels in major U.S. indices before the 1929 peak, warning of unsustainable speculation near key angles and time cycles.
✨ Outcome：Positions were reduced or hedged; followers who acted avoided the worst of the 1929–1932 drawdown.
2
Accumulation After Great Depression Low (1932)
Gann applied Master Charts to the 1932 bottom, noting price-time balance and support zones in leading industrial stocks and the Dow after massive liquidation.
✨ Outcome：Gradual accumulation around identified support led to substantial gains as the 1930s recovery rally unfolded.
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