📖William Gann
Contrarian Thinking
Good investments often feel uncomfortable.
The best investments often feel uncomfortable because they go against popular opinion. If everyone loves a stock, it's probably overpriced. If everyone hates it, investigate.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Contrarian Thinking, W.D. Gann focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：Popularity signals overvaluation; hatred signals opportunity.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
Accumulation After Great Depression Low (1932)
Gann applied Master Charts to the 1932 bottom, noting price-time balance and support zones in leading industrial stocks and the Dow after massive liquidation.
✨ Outcome：Gradual accumulation around identified support led to substantial gains as the 1930s recovery rally unfolded.
2
Riding Out the 1929 Crash (1929)
An investor following Gann’s discipline avoids margin, holds quality rails and industrials through the 1929–32 collapse instead of panic selling.
✨ Outcome：Capital draws down heavily but positions are preserved, allowing recovery and profit as markets rebound in the mid‑1930s.
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