📖William Gann
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🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
W.D. Gann sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Steady learning expands opportunity without increasing risk.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
Pre-Crash Speculation in U.S. Equities (1929)
A trader buys stocks on margin in mid-1929, ignoring Gann’s rules on overtrading, trend analysis, and protective stops.
✨ Outcome：Severe losses in the October crash; portfolio wiped out due to no stop-loss and failure to follow trend-reversal signals.
2
Crash of 1983—87 Bull Market Reversal (1987)
An investor rides the strong 1980s bull market, but unlike peers, applies Gann’s rules: pyramids cautiously, sets stops, and watches time and price cycles.
✨ Outcome：Capital mostly preserved in October 1987 crash; limited drawdowns and quick recovery enabled by disciplined exits.
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