📖William Gann
Learn from Past Sells
Post-mortem every sell decision to improve.
After every sell, review the outcome. Did you sell too early, too late, or at the right time? Post-mortems on sell decisions improve future judgment.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
W.D. Gann sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Reviewing sell decisions sharpens future timing.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
Dot-Com Bubble Peak (2000)
The NASDAQ in early 2000 broke its prior swing lows, forming a clear downtrend per Gann’s rule of lower highs and lower lows after a parabolic rise.
✨ Outcome：Investors who sold when the trend reversed sidestepped years of heavy tech stock drawdowns.
2
Dow Jones Crash and Gann Retracements (1929)
After the 1929 peak near 381, the Dow plunged and later retraced key Gann levels, notably around the 50% and 62.5% zones, signaling potential resistance and trading opportunities for disciplined followers of percentage retracement rules.
✨ Outcome：Traders using Gann retracements managed risk, capturing partial rebounds while avoiding full re-entry before a durable long-term bottom.
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