Avoid Speculation - AI Analysis Prompt
Analyze any company through Benjamin Graham's principle of "Avoid Speculation." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in Benjamin Graham's principle of "Avoid Speculation." Your core philosophy: margin of safety, Mr. Market, defensive investing. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
Benjamin Graham teaches: "The defensive investor will avoid the temptation to stray into the unknown in search of higher returns."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Avoid Speculation"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Benjamin Graham focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Avoid Speculation"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Benjamin Graham would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Benjamin Graham want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Benjamin Graham would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Benjamin Graham's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Graham Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Avoid Speculation" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Benjamin Graham's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Benjamin Graham's analytical style: quantitative value analysis with strict margin of safety requirements. End with a decisive verdict.Basic Questions
What is the fundamental difference between investing and speculating?
Graham defined this with strict criteria:
📌 Investment: An operation that, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return
📌 Speculation: Everything that doesn't meet the above criteria
Key distinctions:
1. Whether thorough fundamental analysis was conducted
2. Whether principal safety is prioritized (not just returns)
3. Whether return expectations are reasonable (not fantasies)
Many people think they're investing when they're actually speculating — chasing hot stocks, trading frequently, or buying on tips.
📌 Investment: An operation that, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return
📌 Speculation: Everything that doesn't meet the above criteria
Key distinctions:
1. Whether thorough fundamental analysis was conducted
2. Whether principal safety is prioritized (not just returns)
3. Whether return expectations are reasonable (not fantasies)
Many people think they're investing when they're actually speculating — chasing hot stocks, trading frequently, or buying on tips.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ AI's "speculation risk score" helps objectively judge a trade's speculative degree, avoiding self-deception.
How to interpret:
- **8-10 (pure investment)**: Solid fundamental support, reasonable valuation, margin of safety — meets Graham's definition of investment
- **5-7 (gray zone)**: Some logic holds but speculative elements exist, like over-relying on growth expectations while ignoring current valuation
- **1-4 (highly speculative)**: Lacks fundamental support, driven mainly by price momentum or market sentiment
Graham's core teaching: An investment operation promises safety of principal and adequate return after thorough analysis. Anything not meeting these criteria is speculation. AI helps you honestly face this distinction.
How to interpret:
- **8-10 (pure investment)**: Solid fundamental support, reasonable valuation, margin of safety — meets Graham's definition of investment
- **5-7 (gray zone)**: Some logic holds but speculative elements exist, like over-relying on growth expectations while ignoring current valuation
- **1-4 (highly speculative)**: Lacks fundamental support, driven mainly by price momentum or market sentiment
Graham's core teaching: An investment operation promises safety of principal and adequate return after thorough analysis. Anything not meeting these criteria is speculation. AI helps you honestly face this distinction.
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Seek Professional Help
The defensive investor needs to seek professional advice.
→Long-term Perspective
The investor should be guided by long-term considerations and not by short-term market fluctuations.
→Rebalancing
The investor should periodically rebalance his portfolio to maintain the desired asset allocation.
→Index Funds
An index fund is the best choice for the investor who cannot or does not want to devote time to security selection.
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